Importações e mudanças estruturais na indústria brasileira, 2003-2018: Uma análise de decomposição estrutural

Abstract

Imports and structural changes in manufacturing have been the subject of intense academic and political debate due to their importance for economic growth. We present in this study the results of a Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) applied to Brazilian manufacturing from 2003 to 2018. The aim of this study is to identify the impacts of structural changes on industrial imports. We used input-output matrices provided by the Nucleus of Regional and Urban Economics at USP (Nereus). The research highlights disparities among different manufacturing sectors during the exchange rate cycles of appreciation (2003-2010) and depreciation (2011-2018). We found that the final demand component is relevant in explaining the variation in imports across all sectors. Despite the depreciated exchange rate in the second cycle, we observed no significant changes in consumption patterns, the intensity of imported inputs usage, or the technological dynamics of Brazilian manufacturing.