Value Added of tourism activities in Rio Grande do Sul: an analysis using the modified shift-share method (2010–2021)

Abstract

The dynamics of tourism activities in Rio Grande do Sul are analyzed using a new Gross Value Added (GVA) indicator through the Esteban Marquillas shift-share method. The growth of municipal GVA is decomposed for the period 2010–2021 and in the subperiods 2010-19 and 2019-21 in light of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study stands out by adopting an approach distinct from most national literature, which generally relies only on formal employment, by including second homes as a tourism phenomenon, and by using sectoral deflators from the Regional Accounts System. The results show that: (i) tourism activity contracted over the period when measured by both employment and constant-price GVA; (ii) GVA exhibited greater volatility than formal employment; (iii) municipal categorization varied according to the type of tourism activity; and (iv) second-home activity demonstrated greater consistency across thesubperiods analyzed.