Infraestrutura de Transporte como Alavanca do Comércio e da Redução da Desigualdade: Evidências para os Estados Brasileiros

Abstract

This article examines the effects of public investment in transportation infrastructure on exports, trade deficits, and income inequality across Brazilian states over the period 2001–2020. The empirical strategy relies on the System GMM estimator, which is well-suited for dynamic panel data models subject to endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The findings indicate that improvements in transportation infrastructure are positively associated with export growth, a reduction in trade deficits, and a decline in income inequality. Counterfactual simulations suggest that a 20% increase in infrastructure investment could raise exports by approximately 3% and reduce the trade deficit by up to 5%. From a distributive perspective, the same shock would lead to a reduction of up to 0.4 percentage points in the state-level Gini index. The empirical evidence underscores the strategic role of infrastructure as a driver of regional development and a promoter of socioeconomic cohesion in the Brazilian context.